NFL Research Upgrade Candidate 2

Premium Efficiency Card

This page shows the tighter premium research candidate: the Balanced XGB GOAT ATS overlay combined with the Premium ROI totals overlay. It is organized like the customer results page so the candidate can be compared cleanly against the current official NFL card.

Back To Customer Results Research Upgrade Candidate 1 How It Was Tested Back To NFL Hub

Top Line

What A $100 Flat-Bet Customer Would Have Seen

The research card combines ATS and totals. A side and a total can both qualify on the same game because they are different betting markets; those same-game spots are audited for correlated exposure instead of automatically removed.

2024 Research Card

+$3,217

+32.17 units at $100 per unit

68-30-2 | 70.0% win/push

100 bets | 32.2% ROI

2025 Research Card

+$2,849

+28.49 units at $100 per unit

60-26-0 | 69.8% win/push

86 bets | 33.1% ROI

2024-2025 Combined

+$6,065

+60.65 units at $100 per unit

128-56-2 | 69.9% win/push

186 bets | 32.6% ROI

CLV snapshot: the Balanced XGB GOAT ATS overlay averaged +0.56 spread points. The Premium ROI totals overlay averaged +0.17 total points with 85.2% non-negative totals CLV. Those CLV reads are shown separately because spread points and total points are different measurements.

What Is Included

Research Upgrade Candidate 2 Has Two Parts

Part 1

NFL ATS: Balanced XGB GOAT Overlay

This research side lane applies the XGBoost GOAT portfolio guard to the strongest full-game and first-half ATS opportunities from the Three Check process.

Part 2

NFL Totals: Premium ROI Overlay

This tighter totals lane keeps the Premium ROI subset from the full-game and first-half totals pool. It emphasizes cleaner scoring environments, non-division settings, and market movement that does not fight the model.

Research status: this page is a premium upgrade candidate for comparison. The existing NFL Customer Results page remains the official locked card unless the business chooses to promote this candidate.

Season Results

Season-By-Season Research Card

2024 NFL Season

Research Card: +$3,217 / +32.17u

This includes the Balanced XGB GOAT ATS overlay plus the Premium ROI totals overlay from the 2024 tested season only.

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	Avg CLV
NFL ATS Overlay	Balanced XGB GOAT overlay	47	33-14-0	70.2%	+$1,625	+16.25u	34.6%	+0.57 spread pts
NFL Totals Overlay	Premium ROI overlay	53	35-16-2	69.8%	+$1,592	+15.91u	30.0%	+0.16 total pts
Research 2024 Card	ATS overlay + totals overlay	100	68-30-2	70.0%	+$3,217	+32.17u	32.2%	Separate

2025 NFL Season

Research Card: +$2,849 / +28.49u

This uses the same research-card structure as 2024, applied to the 2025 tested season only.

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	Avg CLV
NFL ATS Overlay	Balanced XGB GOAT overlay	51	34-17-0	66.7%	+$1,410	+14.10u	27.6%	+0.56 spread pts
NFL Totals Overlay	Premium ROI overlay	35	26-9-0	74.3%	+$1,439	+14.39u	41.1%	+0.19 total pts
Research 2025 Card	ATS overlay + totals overlay	86	60-26-0	69.8%	+$2,849	+28.49u	33.1%	Separate

Combined Tested Window

2024-2025 Research Card: +$6,065 / +60.65u

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	Avg CLV
NFL ATS Overlay	Balanced XGB GOAT overlay	98	67-31-0	68.4%	+$3,035	+30.35u	31.0%	+0.56 spread pts
NFL Totals Overlay	Premium ROI overlay	88	61-25-2	71.6%	+$3,030	+30.30u	34.4%	+0.17 total pts
Research Combined Card	ATS overlay + totals overlay	186	128-56-2	69.9%	+$6,065	+60.65u	32.6%	Separate

Overlap Audit

Side And Total On The Same Game

A side and a total on the same game are not the same bet. The audit below measures same-game exposure instead of forcing the card to remove one side of the signal.

Segment	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Units	ROI
Same-game ATS legs	16	11-5-0	68.8%	+5.19u	32.4%
Same-game totals legs	16	12-4-0	75.0%	+6.76u	42.2%
Same-game combined legs	32	23-9-0	71.9%	+11.95u	37.3%
Non-overlap ATS legs	82	56-26-0	68.3%	+25.16u	30.7%
Non-overlap totals legs	72	49-21-2	70.8%	+23.54u	32.7%

Portfolio read: same-game side plus total overlaps performed well in this sample. Candidate 2 therefore allows both a side and a total on the same game while still tracking exposure transparently.

Plain-English Read

How Customers Should Read This

If a customer risked $100 on every Research Upgrade Candidate 2 play across the 2024 and 2025 tested seasons, the historical result would have been 186 total bets and about $6,065 in profit, or +60.65 units at one unit per $100 play. ROI is profit divided by total risked, so the combined 32.6% ROI means the candidate earned about $32.60 for every $100 risked across the tested window.

This is a historical backtest and a research upgrade candidate, not a promise of future profit. The value of the page is transparency: customers can see the bet count, record, included bet types, profit, units, ROI, CLV, and same-game side-plus-total overlap audit before the candidate is promoted.