NFL Futures Center
Our preseason model turns team strength, schedule, quarterback and coaching context into a full win distribution for every NFL team, then compares that fair forecast with the saved sportsbook total and price.
Saved-Line Research Card
Ranked by the largest model probability advantage against the archived sportsbook price. Each position also clears the model's projected-win direction.
JAX season wins
The schedule simulation lands 2.30 wins above the saved line. The underlying profile carried 12.02 third-order wins and a +8.94 SRS into the preseason build. The market line sits below both the season simulation and the preserved efficiency signal.
CIN season wins
The schedule simulation lands 1.92 wins below the saved line. The underlying profile carried 4.83 third-order wins and a -4.93 SRS into the preseason build. The market line asks for a larger rebound than the preserved efficiency profile supports.
NYJ season wins
The schedule simulation lands 1.66 wins below the saved line. The underlying profile carried 2.20 third-order wins and a -12.33 SRS into the preseason build. The market line asks for a larger rebound than the preserved efficiency profile supports.
DAL season wins
The schedule simulation lands 2.51 wins below the saved line. The underlying profile carried 6.09 third-order wins and a -4.31 SRS into the preseason build. The market line asks for a larger rebound than the preserved efficiency profile supports.
LA season wins
The schedule simulation lands 2.16 wins above the saved line. The underlying profile carried 14.13 third-order wins and a +12.31 SRS into the preseason build. The market line sits below both the season simulation and the preserved efficiency signal.
Model vs. Market
Model mean wins and probabilities come from the saved season simulation. Raw price edge compares the model probability with the sportsbook's unadjusted implied probability. No-vig edge removes the book's hold.
| Best side | Status | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LALos Angeles Rams | 12.66 | 10.5 | +2.16 | 88.9% | 11.1% | Over | +30.6 pp | +33.3 pp | Value screen |
| 2 | SEASeattle Seahawks | 11.83 | 10.5 | +1.33 | 77.4% | 22.6% | Over | +22.8 pp | +25.2 pp | Value screen |
| 3 | HOUHouston Texans | 11.26 | 9.5 | +1.76 | 82.9% | 17.1% | Over | +27.3 pp | +29.6 pp | Value screen |
| 4 | DETDetroit Lions | 11.03 | 10.5 | +0.53 | 61.9% | 38.1% | Over | +9.5 pp | +11.9 pp | Lean only |
| 5 | JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 10.80 | 8.5 | +2.30 | 88.6% | 11.4% | Over | +41.0 pp | +42.9 pp | Value screen |
| 6 | BUFBuffalo Bills | 10.73 | 10.5 | +0.23 | 55.6% | 44.4% | Over | +0.0 pp | +2.4 pp | Lean only |
| 7 | NENew England Patriots | 10.53 | 10.5 | +0.03 | 51.4% | 48.6% | Over | +7.0 pp | +8.8 pp | Lean only |
| 8 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 10.47 | 10.5 | -0.03 | 50.3% | 49.7% | Over | +1.5 pp | +3.5 pp | Lean only |
| 9 | DENDenver Broncos | 10.15 | 9.5 | +0.65 | 63.5% | 36.5% | Over | +10.1 pp | +12.5 pp | Lean only |
| 10 | GBGreen Bay Packers | 9.88 | 10.5 | -0.62 | 37.7% | 62.3% | Under | +4.0 pp | +6.7 pp | Lean only |
| 11 | KCKansas City Chiefs | 9.86 | 10.5 | -0.64 | 37.4% | 62.6% | Under | +4.3 pp | +7.0 pp | Lean only |
| 12 | BALBaltimore Ravens | 9.79 | 11.5 | -1.71 | 18.9% | 81.1% | Under | +22.7 pp | +25.4 pp | Value screen |
| 13 | SFSan Francisco 49ers | 9.74 | 10.5 | -0.76 | 35.1% | 64.9% | Under | +5.7 pp | +7.8 pp | Value screen |
| 14 | INDIndianapolis Colts | 9.62 | 7.5 | +2.12 | 86.6% | 13.4% | Over | +30.0 pp | +32.3 pp | Value screen |
| 15 | CHIChicago Bears | 9.32 | 9.5 | -0.18 | 46.5% | 53.5% | Under | -1.0 pp | +1.4 pp | Lean only |
| 16 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | 9.31 | 9.5 | -0.19 | 46.4% | 53.6% | Under | +5.9 pp | +7.8 pp | Lean only |
| 17 | MINMinnesota Vikings | 8.56 | 8.5 | +0.06 | 50.9% | 49.1% | Over | -1.4 pp | +0.9 pp | Lean only |
| 18 | TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.54 | 8.5 | +0.04 | 51.4% | 48.6% | Under | -0.2 pp | +1.8 pp | Lean only |
| 19 | PITPittsburgh Steelers | 8.46 | 8.5 | -0.04 | 48.8% | 51.2% | Over | -1.2 pp | +1.0 pp | Lean only |
| 20 | NONew Orleans Saints | 7.73 | 7.5 | +0.23 | 54.0% | 46.0% | Over | -0.5 pp | +1.9 pp | Lean only |
| 21 | ATLAtlanta Falcons | 7.60 | 6.5 | +1.10 | 70.1% | 29.9% | Over | +16.7 pp | +19.1 pp | Value screen |
| 22 | CINCincinnati Bengals | 7.58 | 9.5 | -1.92 | 16.4% | 83.6% | Under | +37.1 pp | +39.2 pp | Value screen |
| 23 | NYGNew York Giants | 7.38 | 7.5 | -0.12 | 46.9% | 53.1% | Under | +1.9 pp | +4.2 pp | Lean only |
| 24 | DALDallas Cowboys | 6.99 | 9.5 | -2.51 | 9.7% | 90.3% | Under | +32.0 pp | +34.7 pp | Value screen |
| 25 | CARCarolina Panthers | 6.51 | 7.5 | -0.99 | 30.0% | 70.0% | Under | +13.5 pp | +15.8 pp | Value screen |
| 26 | CLECleveland Browns | 6.08 | 6.5 | -0.42 | 40.7% | 59.3% | Under | +4.7 pp | +6.5 pp | Lean only |
| 27 | WASWashington Commanders | 6.06 | 7.5 | -1.44 | 21.9% | 78.1% | Under | +28.1 pp | +30.2 pp | Value screen |
| 28 | TENTennessee Titans | 5.33 | 6.5 | -1.17 | 25.2% | 74.8% | Under | +22.4 pp | +24.8 pp | Value screen |
| 29 | ARIArizona Cardinals | 5.10 | 4.5 | +0.60 | 62.2% | 37.8% | Over | +17.8 pp | +19.7 pp | Lean only |
| 30 | MIAMiami Dolphins | 4.82 | 4.5 | +0.32 | 56.1% | 43.9% | Over | +3.8 pp | +6.2 pp | Lean only |
| 31 | LVLas Vegas Raiders | 4.45 | 5.5 | -1.05 | 26.2% | 73.8% | Under | +28.4 pp | +30.4 pp | Value screen |
| 32 | NYJNew York Jets | 3.84 | 5.5 | -1.66 | 15.7% | 84.3% | Under | +34.3 pp | +36.4 pp | Value screen |
Model Construction
The market is a strong preseason prior. Our model moves away from it only when the schedule simulation and football context provide enough evidence.
Foundation
Prior wins, Pythagorean wins, scoring margin, opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive EPA, success rate, special teams, and quarterback EPA/CPOE.
Preseason context
Market-implied opponent strength, division quality, home-road mix, rest profile, coaching continuity, quarterback change, and carefully constrained injury context.
Simulation
Game probabilities are simulated across the full schedule to produce mean, median, percentile wins, Over/Under probability, and a fair futures price.
Three Check Futures Process
A model lean is not automatically a bet. The futures card must clear value, market discipline, and football-context governance.
Check 1
The broad V1 lane requires at least 0.75 projected wins of separation and at least 3 percentage points of no-vig probability edge.
Check 2
The process removes sportsbook hold, compares the exact available price, shops the market, and records the bet-time line for later CLV review.
Check 3
The card layers unique low-total V4 schedule/injury positions after V1 and never counts two model lanes as separate bets on the same team-season.
Walk-Forward Evidence
Thresholds were selected with 2020-2023 information, then judged on 2024 and 2025 without using either season's final results as preseason features.
| Test | Bets | Record | Units | ROI | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V1 broad, 2024 | 9 | 6-3 | +3.28u | 36.4% | 66.7% |
| V1 broad, 2025 | 10 | 6-4 | +0.72u | 7.2% | 60.0% |
| V1 broad combined | 19 | 12-7 | +4.00u | 21.0% | 63.2% |
| Best V1 + V4 portfolio | 28 | 19-9 | +8.44u | 30.1% | 67.9% |
Column Guide