Third Order Ratings
Final 2025 regular-season team ratings using an NFL version of third-order thinking: scoreboard quality, SRS-style schedule strength, opponent-adjusted underlying efficiency, and Pythagorean expected wins. Click any column heading to rank that stat from best to worst or worst to best.
Method
Record is what happened. SRS and SOS adjust scoring margin for schedule. Pythagorean wins convert points for and against into expected wins. Third-order margin and wins blend schedule-adjusted scoring with opponent-adjusted play-quality signals. NF-style net efficiency is a public-data efficiency analog, not official numberFire NEP.
Rankings
| 1 | LA | Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 12.310 | 2.192 | 12.281 | 14.911 | .831 | 14.128 | 2.012 |
| 2 | SEA | Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 12.642 | 1.407 | 13.043 | 10.670 | .754 | 12.815 | 1.552 |
| 3 | HOU | Houston Texans | 12-5 | 8.775 | 2.364 | 11.528 | 9.518 | .730 | 12.410 | 1.015 |
| 4 | JAX | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 | 8.942 | 0.824 | 11.786 | 8.460 | .707 | 12.020 | 0.932 |
| 5 | NE | New England Patriots | 14-3 | 5.715 | -4.285 | 12.461 | 6.937 | .673 | 11.434 | 1.032 |
| 6 | DEN | Denver Broncos | 14-3 | 3.697 | -1.598 | 10.985 | 6.715 | .667 | 11.346 | 1.178 |
| 7 | PHI | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 2.555 | -0.622 | 10.031 | 6.651 | .666 | 11.321 | 0.682 |
| 8 | BUF | Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 4.733 | -2.090 | 11.185 | 6.302 | .658 | 11.181 | 1.031 |
| 9 | DET | Detroit Lions | 9-8 | 3.667 | -0.333 | 10.019 | 5.897 | .648 | 11.018 | 0.808 |
| 10 | IND | Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 | 5.164 | 1.987 | 9.732 | 5.770 | .645 | 10.966 | 0.599 |
| 11 | GB | Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1 | 0.781 | -1.043 | 9.329 | 4.268 | .608 | 10.344 | 0.662 |
| 12 | KC | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 2.129 | 0.129 | 9.489 | 4.030 | .603 | 10.243 | 0.366 |
| 13 | LAC | Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 1.021 | -0.626 | 9.295 | 3.251 | .583 | 9.912 | 0.405 |
| 14 | CHI | Chicago Bears | 11-6 | 0.258 | -1.272 | 9.111 | 3.234 | .583 | 9.905 | 0.150 |
| 15 | SF | San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 5.768 | 1.886 | 10.129 | 3.089 | .579 | 9.843 | 0.225 |
| 16 | BAL | Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 1.343 | -0.187 | 9.136 | 0.270 | .507 | 8.618 | 0.114 |
| 17 | PIT | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 0.270 | -0.319 | 8.757 | -0.260 | .493 | 8.386 | -0.019 |
| 18 | MIN | Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 | 0.537 | -0.111 | 8.827 | -0.308 | .492 | 8.365 | 0.124 |
| 19 | TB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | -1.262 | 0.562 | 7.712 | -0.444 | .489 | 8.306 | -0.323 |
| 20 | ATL | Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | -2.958 | -0.135 | 7.226 | -1.701 | .456 | 7.757 | -0.149 |
| 21 | NO | New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | -5.069 | -0.540 | 6.291 | -2.864 | .427 | 7.254 | -0.204 |
| 22 | ARI | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | -4.586 | 3.237 | 5.439 | -3.703 | .406 | 6.895 | -0.755 |
| 23 | NYG | New York Giants | 4-13 | -3.833 | -0.421 | 7.086 | -3.990 | .398 | 6.774 | -0.751 |
| 24 | DAL | Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 | -4.311 | -1.959 | 7.682 | -5.627 | .358 | 6.092 | -0.626 |
| 25 | CAR | Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | -3.767 | 0.292 | 6.519 | -6.294 | .342 | 5.822 | -0.685 |
| 26 | WAS | Washington Commanders | 5-12 | -5.930 | -0.342 | 6.178 | -7.541 | .314 | 5.330 | -0.834 |
| 27 | CLE | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | -7.157 | -1.275 | 5.543 | -8.143 | .300 | 5.099 | -1.095 |
| 28 | MIA | Miami Dolphins | 7-10 | -6.119 | -1.590 | 6.518 | -8.436 | .293 | 4.988 | -1.143 |
| 29 | CIN | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | -4.929 | -0.341 | 6.785 | -8.876 | .284 | 4.825 | -1.043 |
| 30 | TEN | Tennessee Titans | 3-14 | -7.768 | 3.644 | 3.833 | -11.752 | .225 | 3.822 | -1.709 |
| 31 | LV | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | -10.288 | 0.947 | 3.408 | -12.461 | .211 | 3.595 | -1.578 |
| 32 | NYJ | New York Jets | 3-14 | -12.326 | -0.385 | 3.860 | -17.577 | .129 | 2.199 | -1.971 |
These ratings are final-season descriptive rankings. Pregame betting models must use rolling ratings built only from games already played before kickoff.