Results Tracker

NCAA Men's Basketball Model Results

Current NCAA Men's Basketball Straight-Bet Model. Tested on corrected 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons using price-aware grading. The displayed card integrates Full-Game ATS, Full-Game Totals, Team Totals Unified, and the Moneyline Guardrail shadow lane into the proper season records.

Customer Summary Read Explanation Back To NCAAB Hub Ratings Four Factors

How To Read This Page

Customer Record First, Business Detail Preserved

Flat-bet examples assume risking $100 for every 1.0u. ROI is profit divided by total amount risked. Win percentage excludes pushes. CLV is closing-line value. ATS, full-game totals, and team-total CLV are measured in points. Moneyline CLV is shown separately as no-vig implied-probability percentage points.

Customer View

Show seasons in order, combine duplicate lanes into the bet type customers would actually play, and lead with bets, record, profit, ROI, and CLV.

Business View

Keep tier, governor, and research-lane detail in internal notes and compact archives so the team can improve the model without making the public page hard to read.

CLV Rule

Publish CLV when the true pregame close is available. The current NCAA men's promoted card has true-close CLV for ATS, full-game totals, and Team Totals Unified. Keep moneyline no-vig CLV separate.

Chronological Tested Record

NCAAB Model Results Tracker

Earliest Tested Season

2024-25 Season

Corrected Ball Don't Lie refetch and promoted-card rerun. This shows only the 2024-25 tested season, not a multi-season combined record.

Corrected Audit

2024-25 Full-Game ATS Results

+$576

24-16-1 | 60.0% win rate

41 bets | +5.76u | 14.1% ROI

Avg true CLV +1.09 pts

2024-25 Full-Game Totals Results

+$271

14-10 | 58.3% win rate

24 bets | +2.71u | 11.3% ROI

Avg true CLV +3.30 pts

2024-25 Team Totals Unified

+$336

14-9 | 60.9% win rate

23 bets | +3.36u | 14.6% ROI

Avg true CLV +3.20 pts

2024-25 ML Guardrail

+$603

14-5 | 73.7% win rate

19 bets | +6.03u | 31.7% ROI

No-vig CLV +0.05 pp

2024-25 Season Combined

+$1,786

+17.86 units at $100 per unit

66-40-1 | 62.3% win rate

107 bets | +17.86u | 16.7% ROI

Bet Type	Model Group	Bets	Record	Win %	Profit	Units	ROI	Avg CLV	CLV Notes
Full-Game ATS	Robust Premium Core ATS governor	41	24-16-1	60.0%	+$576.32	+5.76u	+14.1%	+1.09 pts	97.6% non-negative true CLV
Full-Game Totals	Three Check totals combined	24	14-10	58.3%	+$271.10	+2.71u	+11.3%	+3.30 pts	95.8% non-negative true CLV
Team Totals Unified	Unified team-total over card	23	14-9	60.9%	+$336.47	+3.36u	+14.6%	+3.20 pts	True-close CLV connected for promoted team-total category
Moneyline Guardrail	ML Shadow guardrail	19	14-5	73.7%	+$602.56	+6.03u	+31.7%	+0.05 pp	No-vig implied-probability CLV
Season Combined	ATS + totals + team totals + ML shadow	107	66-40-1	62.3%	+$1,786.44	+17.86u	+16.7%	Mixed	Point CLV and no-vig ML CLV shown by lane

Next Tested Season

2025-26 Season

The current business-forward promoted product card. This section shows only the 2025-26 tested season, with ATS, full-game totals, and Team Totals Unified all positive using actual sportsbook prices.

Active Product Card

2025-26 Full-Game ATS Results

+$1,145

27-13 | 67.5% win rate

40 bets | +11.45u | 28.6% ROI

Avg true CLV +0.41 pts

2025-26 Full-Game Totals Results

+$2,033

55-29-1 | 65.5% win rate

85 bets | +20.33u | 23.9% ROI

Avg true CLV +1.48 pts

2025-26 Team Totals Unified

+$852

18-8 | 69.2% win rate

26 bets | +8.52u | 32.8% ROI

Avg true CLV +2.85 pts

2025-26 ML Guardrail

+$370

9-3 | 75.0% win rate

12 bets | +3.70u | 30.9% ROI

No-vig CLV +0.02 pp

2025-26 Season Combined

+$4,400

+44.00 units at $100 per unit

109-53-1 | 67.3% win rate

163 bets | +44.00u | 27.0% ROI

Bet Type	Model Group	Bets	Record	Win %	Profit	Units	ROI	Avg CLV	CLV Notes
Full-Game ATS	Robust Premium Core ATS governor	40	27-13	67.5%	+$1,145.35	+11.45u	+28.6%	+0.41 pts	85.0% non-negative true CLV
Full-Game Totals	Three Check totals combined	85	55-29-1	65.5%	+$2,033.15	+20.33u	+23.9%	+1.48 pts	87.1% non-negative true CLV
Team Totals Unified	Unified team-total over card	26	18-8	69.2%	+$851.71	+8.52u	+32.8%	+2.85 pts	92.3% non-negative true CLV
Moneyline Guardrail	ML Shadow guardrail	12	9-3	75.0%	+$370.22	+3.70u	+30.9%	+0.02 pp	No-vig implied-probability CLV
Season Combined	ATS + totals + team totals + ML shadow	163	109-53-1	67.3%	+$4,400.43	+44.00u	+27.0%	Mixed	Point CLV and no-vig ML CLV shown by lane

Business tracking note: the internal model tracker should continue storing individual tier and lane diagnostics, including candidate cards, safety-net subsets, site governors, Monte Carlo variants, and team-total price audits. The current displayed card integrates the Moneyline Guardrail shadow lane by season: 270 bets, 175-93-2, +$6,186.87, +61.87u, +22.91% ROI across 2024-25 and 2025-26. The promoted-only 239-bet view remains available in model docs, but it is no longer shown as a separate website card.

Moneyline Guardrail Shadow Lane

Status: shadow / live-test only, but integrated into the displayed season records. Its CLV is measured as no-vig implied-probability percentage points, not spread or total points.

Three Check logic: model ML edge at least 8%, win probability at least 62%, actual line-shopped price at least -160; at least 8 H2H books available; reject away-team short-price traps from -130 to -110.

Season	Status	Bets	Record	Win %	Profit	Units	ROI	No-Vig CLV	CLV Notes
2024-25	Shadow	19	14-5	73.7%	+$602.56	+6.03u	+31.7%	+0.05 pp	Not customer-facing yet
2025-26	Shadow	12	9-3	75.0%	+$370.22	+3.70u	+30.9%	+0.02 pp	Not customer-facing yet
Combined	Shadow	31	23-8	74.2%	+$972.78	+9.73u	+31.4%	+0.04 pp	Live shadow tracking recommended

Older-season robustness: 2023 alone produced only 1 same-protocol candidate, and 2021-2023 combined produced only 5 guardrail candidates. That older block is too thin to validate or kill the lane.

Internal Lane Detail Preserved For Audit

The old 2024 ATS site-net or site-FTR governor is superseded. The current displayed card includes Full-Game ATS, Full-Game Totals, Team Totals Unified, and Moneyline Guardrail shadow plays by season. The ATS candidate uses site model edge at least 2, actual spread price at least -115, and spread cap no higher than 16. True-close point CLV is connected for ATS, totals, and team totals; moneyline uses no-vig probability CLV.