NFL Research Moneyline Candidate 1

Full + First-Half Moneyline Portfolio

This page shows the moneyline research candidate built separately from the official NFL card: playable full-game favorites and underdogs, plus first-half moneyline companion plays, governed with a no-double-dip higher-EV rule.

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Top Line

What A $100 Flat-Bet Customer Would Have Seen

This research lane is not part of the locked official NFL card yet. It is shown separately so customers can compare the new moneyline candidate against the current moneyline benchmark.

2024 ML Candidate

+$1,388

+13.88 units at $100 per unit

32-19-2 | 64.2% win/push

53 bets | 26.2% ROI

2025 ML Candidate

+$1,059

+10.59 units at $100 per unit

27-19-5 | 62.7% win/push

51 bets | 20.8% ROI

2024-2025 Combined

+$2,447

+24.47 units at $100 per unit

59-38-7 | 63.5% win/push

104 bets | 23.5% ROI

CLV note: true moneyline close CLV is not connected for this research lane yet. The audit tracks available market-movement proxies, but it should not be advertised as true close CLV until a real pre-kickoff moneyline close archive is connected.

What Is Included

Research Moneyline Candidate 1 Has Two Parts

Part 1

Full-Game Favorite/Dog Moneyline

Uses the new full-game moneyline research lane: playable short favorites, plus-money underdogs, no-vig market probability, model edge, expected value, price discipline, and football context.

Part 2

First-Half Moneyline Companion

Uses first-half moneyline only when the first-half ATS signal already qualifies. This keeps H1 moneyline from becoming a blind standalone product.

No-double-dip rule: if full-game moneyline and first-half moneyline both qualify on the same game, this candidate keeps the leg with the stronger expected-value read.

Season Results

Season-By-Season Research Card

2024 NFL Season

Moneyline Candidate: +$1,388 / +13.88u

This includes the full-game favorite/dog moneyline lane plus qualifying first-half moneyline companion plays, with no-double-dip higher-EV priority.

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	CLV / Pricing Read
Full-Game ML Context	Playable favorites + underdogs	19	12-7-0	63.2%	+$809	+8.09u	42.6%	Movement proxy only
H1 ML Context	Companion to qualifying H1 ATS	38	21-15-2	60.5%	+$434	+4.34u	11.4%	Movement proxy only
Research 2024 ML Card	No-double-dip higher-EV portfolio	53	32-19-2	64.2%	+$1,388	+13.88u	26.2%	True ML CLV pending

2025 NFL Season

Moneyline Candidate: +$1,059 / +10.59u

This uses the same moneyline research-card structure as 2024, applied to the 2025 tested season only.

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	CLV / Pricing Read
Full-Game ML Context	Playable favorites + underdogs	19	10-9-0	52.6%	+$498	+4.98u	26.2%	Movement proxy only
H1 ML Context	Companion to qualifying H1 ATS	34	17-12-5	64.7%	+$360	+3.60u	10.6%	Movement proxy only
Research 2025 ML Card	No-double-dip higher-EV portfolio	51	27-19-5	62.7%	+$1,059	+10.59u	20.8%	True ML CLV pending

Combined Tested Window

2024-2025 Research ML Card: +$2,447 / +24.47u

Card Piece	Included Bet Types	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI	CLV / Pricing Read
Full-Game ML Context	Playable favorites + underdogs	38	22-16-0	57.9%	+$1,308	+13.08u	34.4%	Movement proxy only
H1 ML Context	Companion to qualifying H1 ATS	72	38-27-7	62.5%	+$794	+7.94u	11.0%	Movement proxy only
Research Combined ML Card	No-double-dip higher-EV portfolio	104	59-38-7	63.5%	+$2,447	+24.47u	23.5%	True ML CLV pending

Current Benchmark Comparison

How It Compares To The Current Moneyline Lane

Moneyline Lane	Bets	Record	Win/Push	Profit	Units	ROI
Current locked ML benchmark	61	32-29	52.5%	+$99	+0.99u	1.6%
Research Moneyline Candidate 1	104	59-38-7	63.5%	+$2,447	+24.47u	23.5%

Research status: this is a strong moneyline challenger, not a promoted official product yet. The next validation step is true moneyline close CLV or live 2026 tracking.

Plain-English Read

How Customers Should Read This

If a customer risked $100 on every Research Moneyline Candidate 1 play across the 2024 and 2025 tested seasons, the historical result would have been 104 total bets and about $2,447 in profit, or +24.47 units at one unit per $100 play. ROI is profit divided by total risked, so the combined 23.5% ROI means the candidate earned about $23.50 for every $100 risked across the tested window.

This is a historical backtest and a research candidate, not a promise of future profit. The value of the page is transparency: customers can see the bet count, record, included bet types, profit, units, ROI, and the current CLV limitation before the candidate is promoted.